Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
